Efficiency-Derived Goal Equivalents

What Is EDGE?

EDGEis a more sophisticated version of the ubiquitousstat.

Pioneered by (the enigmatic) Paul Würtztack atUltiworld, EDGE estimates the scoring contribution of each player in “goal equivalents” based on yardage, playmaking, and game flow.

The totalEDGE-Ogoal equivalents earned by players willequalthe team’s point total over a game, whileEDGE(overall), which includesEDGE-Dgoal equivalents earned from blocks, will sum toexceedthe team’s total points.

Why EDGE?

Have you ever torched your defender to catch a huge huck just short of the goal line, smartly thrown a dump, and then watched your teammate throw a one-foot assist to another wide-open teammate?Yourwas 0, theirs were +1.

FromUltiworld:

...yardage is a key measurement in assessing offensive productivity, for two reasons:

• It’s important. Ultimate is a field-position game in which yardage gains increase the probability of scoring, just as in football. If stats are to reflect and reinforce good game play, they should include yardage.
• It’s plentiful. Yardage provides better resolution of relative contributions in a game or tournament than goals and assists.

EDGEalso reflects the perspective that the cost of turnovers should relate to their abundance, given that the probability of a team winning a point despite a turnover is related to how frequently turnovers occur. As the number of turnovers goes up, for example because of wind, the cost of any one turnover should go down, which is whyEDGEuses a game’s scoring efficiency as a starting point.

How Is EDGE Calculated?

Throwing and reception yardage accounts for75% of the goal equivalents while attributed scores and assists account for the remaining 25%.

Blocks (positive) and turnovers (negative) are also assigned goal equivalents scaled to scoring efficiency.

What Is Scoring Efficiency?

GameSE = GameGoals / (GameGoals + GameTurns)

GameSE (goals divided by possessions) establishes thevalue of each possessionthrough its likelihood to end in a score. It serves as a scaling factor for how yards, scores, assists, blocks and turnovers translate into goal equivalents.

For example, if there are 20 possessions in a game that result in 10 points scored, each possession is worth ½ of a goal equivalent (i.e. GameSE of ½). In such a game, committing a turnover costs a player ½ of a goal equivalent and earning a block gains a player ½ of a goal equivalent.

Note that GameSE is calculated using total points and possessions for both teams.

What Is the Yardage Coefficient?

YardCoeff = (0.75) * (TeamGoals + (TeamTurns * GameSE)) / (TeamThrowYds + TeamRecYds)

YardCoeff is the value of a throwing or receiving yard scaled to the team’s total yards in the game and the efficiency by which they converted yards into scores.

What Is the Scoring Coefficient?

ScoreCoeff = (0.25) * (TeamGoals + (TeamTurns * GameSE)) / (TeamGoals + TeamAssists)

ScoreCoeff is the value of a score or assist in the context of the total scores in the game. It scales the value of a scoring actions— goals and assists— to goal equivalents.

What Is EDGE-O?

EDGE-O = (PlayerThrowYds + PlayerRecYds) * YardCoeff + (PlayerAssists + Player Goals) * ScoreCoeff – (PlayerTurns) * GameSE

EDGE-O aggregates a player’s yardage, scoring, assists, and turnover contributions then scales to goal equivalents.

What Is EDGE-B?

EDGE-B = PlayerBlocks * GameSE

EDGE-B is a players defensive EDGE contribution in goal equivalents.

What Is EDGE (Overall)?

EDGE = EDGE-O + EDGE-B

EDGE, a player’s overall goal-equivalents contribution, is the sum of EDGE-O and EDGE-B.

EDGE + Fuego Stats?

Live, dynamic, responsive calculations.

Contextual Yardage

Fuego Stats estimates throwing and receiving yardage using contextual information such as receiver role (e.g. handler or cutter), throw type (e.g. huck), and point context (e.g. zone or endzone).

How Accurate Is Contextual Yardage?

In an absolute sense, contextual yardage estimates are merely directional.

But, in service to EDGE (which uses relative yardage to measure impact), I believe it scales accurately:

• Huck completions/receptions are worth more than not-hucks
• (Presumably) longer throws/receptions (downfield) to cutters are worth more than throws to handlers
• (Presumably) shorter throws/receptions in zone are worth less than throws in not-zone

If your throwers and receivers are making high-value plays, the yardage should track.

Where Does Contextual Yardage Fail?

• Dominant plays & players. If a star handler is winning upline cuts at well above the team average that is lost. If a star cutter is taking the top off the defense to receive super-long hucks or epic under cuts, that is lost. Contextual yardage assumes most plays are made close to team averages.
• Improperly-tagged points. Per-throw yardage varies by tag. For example, all yardage is signficantly reduced if throws/receptions have the “zone” tag applied. If a zone offense point is not tagged as such, dozens of low-yardage throws may total to hundreds of yards (especially for cutters).
• Hybrid/inaccurate positions. Cutters earn more yardage per reception than handlers on the assumption the throws are further downfield. If a player tagged as a cutter plays handler for a point, they may accrue a dozen yards per reception for flat swing cuts.